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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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