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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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