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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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