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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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