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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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