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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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