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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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