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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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