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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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