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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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