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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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