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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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