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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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