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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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