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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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