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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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