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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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