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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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