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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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