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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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