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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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