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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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