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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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