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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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