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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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