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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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