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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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