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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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