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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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