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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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