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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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