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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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