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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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