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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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