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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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