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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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