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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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