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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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