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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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