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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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