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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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