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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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