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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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