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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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