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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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