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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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