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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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