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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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