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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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