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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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