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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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