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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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