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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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