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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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