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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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