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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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