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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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