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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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