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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 19 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS 13.5 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 13, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 18 January 18
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL RISES BY 1.5% IN 2017 - KOHLENIMPORTEURE
Press Release: World Trade in Hard Coal Rises by 1.5% in 2017. German Steam Coal Imports Plummet by 15% in 2017 – in Contrast to Other Sector ...
Wednesday, 17 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are now well into the first month of 2018, the mood across the entire offshore industry undeniably remains rather positive following the oil ...
Monday, 15 January 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO WEAK THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
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Showing 1826 to 1830 news of total 6871 |
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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