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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfo ...
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Showing 1806 to 1810 news of total 6871 |
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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