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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
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Showing 1796 to 1800 news of total 6871 |
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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