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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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