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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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