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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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Showing 1831 to 1835 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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